Diesel Is Fading Away, And Toyota Has Already Chosen Its Successor | Carscoops

      Toyota envisions that an unexpected alternative fuel might soon succeed diesel, potentially revolutionizing traditional powertrain approaches.

      The company anticipates a significant increase in hydrogen car demand post-2030. While many automakers have moved away from hydrogen, Toyota is optimistic about its future, although it recognizes that a substantial shift in consumer preferences is necessary for hydrogen to become truly viable.

      Diesel engines have long been favored for pickups, vans, and large SUVs in key markets, but their prevalence may be ending—at least according to Toyota Australia. If their predictions hold true, fuel cell electric vehicles could become mainstream within the next ten years.

      In Australia, Toyota heavily depends on diesel engines. Of the 163,491 vehicles sold locally in the first eight months of the year, 48.4% featured diesel engines. Models such as the Hilux, LandCruiser, LandCruiser Prado, HiAce, and the widely popular Fortuner SUV contribute to these figures.

      Toyota's third-generation fuel cell system is noted to be more cost-effective and 20% more efficient.

      Although the automaker acknowledges diesel's current significance, Sean Hanley, Toyota Australia’s vice president of sales, marketing, and franchise operations, believes that diesel engines could eventually be phased out completely. If diesel were to vanish in Australia, where it has traditionally been favored, it wouldn't bode well for its prospects elsewhere.

      When Diesel Reaches its Limits

      “Diesel isn’t going away anytime in the next decade, but beyond that – I believe hydrogen will replace diesel,” Sean Hanley told CarExpert.

      “There’s a strong diesel culture in Australia… but I foresee that in the long term, diesel might not be the fuel of the future. The reality is that a petrol vehicle can do everything a diesel can, and more,” he elaborated.

      The Emergence of Hydrogen

      Hanley also stated that between 2030 and 2035, he anticipates a significant rise in sales of hydrogen-powered Toyota models, enabling them to replace diesel-powered vehicles.

      “In the 2030s, particularly towards 2035, I genuinely believe hydrogen will shape our future – and that’s where we may see a transition away from diesel technology… we are preparing for that future,” he stated. “Why? Because hydrogen is clean, offers good range, and the infrastructure will improve significantly compared to today. It will be more convenient and affordable.”

      A Divergent Approach

      While Toyota continues to heavily invest in hydrogen technology, numerous other manufacturers have abandoned their hydrogen plans, opting instead to focus on battery-electric vehicles as the future. Although hydrogen vehicles appear logical, the existing infrastructure is still in its early stages, and a considerable effort from multiple automakers is necessary to build refueling networks that can compete with traditional gas stations and newer electric vehicle charging stations.