Toyota Executive Believes Hydrogen Will Replace Diesel

      Toyota

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      It's often said that there are only two certainties in life: death and taxes. However, I argue there's a third: Toyota's commitment to hydrogen, regardless of the global situation. The automaker continues to invest in this alternative fuel, even if its widespread adoption seems at times further off than the colonization of Mars. A Toyota Australia executive has now stated that he believes hydrogen will surpass diesel within our lifetimes.

      “Diesel isn’t going anywhere in the next decade, but beyond that, I believe hydrogen will surpass diesel,” said Sean Hanley, Toyota Australia’s Vice President of Sales, Marketing, and Franchise Operations, during discussions with media, including CarExpert. “There's a strong diesel culture in Australia... eventually, although not in the near future, I can’t envision diesel as a fuel of the future, as a petrol vehicle can achieve everything diesel can and more.”

      Let’s take a moment to reflect. Hanley’s comments are clearly targeted at the Australian market. Yet, Australia has a significant affection for diesel, similar to the United States, as many vehicles and smaller trucks still rely on it. It's intriguing to note that, among all the places where Hanley could anticipate hydrogen gaining popularity over diesel, he mentions Australia.

      Hanley highlights that Australia possesses “an abundance of hydrogen,” suggesting that the country is well-suited to lead the transition away from fossil fuels. Furthermore, the Australian government has declared its ambition to become one of the world’s largest hydrogen suppliers by 2030. However, currently, the necessary infrastructure is still sorely lacking. A map of hydrogen fueling stations reveals only 13 across the entire continent, with the majority located in the more populated southeastern region:

      CSIRO.au

      While you might assume the United States is making greater strides in hydrogen adoption with its 50 fueling stations, it’s essential to note that they are all concentrated in California:

      U.S. Department of Energy

      Toyota is certainly aware of this situation. Earlier this year, the company reduced the price of its sole hydrogen-powered vehicle, the Mirai, by $25,000, hoping to encourage drivers to purchase them. This has been a challenge ever since the introduction of the Mirai FCEV in the U.S.

      “I don’t want people to believe that hydrogen will suddenly become mainstream between now and 2030,” Hanley stated. “However, in the 2030s, particularly around 2035, I genuinely believe hydrogen will be our future—and that’s when we may start to see a shift in diesel technology… we’re preparing for that future.”

      It’s uncertain what the next 10-15 years will hold. As things stand now, diesel is prevalent—not just in Australia and the United States. I’m not dismissing hydrogen before it has a chance to thrive, but for it to surpass diesel, substantial changes will be necessary—along with a significant financial commitment from Toyota.

      “We remain heavily invested in hydrogen—our stance hasn’t changed—but it’s not a short-term investment,” Hanley concluded.

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