J.D. Power Predicts 60% Drop in EV Sales for October | Carscoops

      Demand for electric vehicles is expected to plummet this month as tax credits disappear and consumers retreat.



      According to J.D. Power, a 60% decrease in EV sales is anticipated for October compared to September figures. This decline follows the expiration of federal tax credits that had previously made them more affordable. EVs are projected to comprise 5.2% of new vehicle sales, a significant drop from September's record of 12.9%.

      It is evident that EV sales would suffer considerably without government incentives. The $7,500 credit significantly impacts the vehicle pricing, making most models much less attractive.

      If J.D. Power's forecast is accurate, the removal of this credit has affected the EV market even more severely than many within the industry had predicted.

      How Serious is the Decline?

      The research firm, in collaboration with GlobalData, estimates retail EV sales in October will be 54,673 units. Should this prediction prove correct, it would represent a 43.1% decrease compared to October 2024, when 96,085 electric vehicles were sold, leading to a market share drop from 8.5% to just 5.2%.

      This marks a drastic shift from the previous month. EVs captured a record 12.9% of the market in September, but if October's expected sales of 54,673 materialize, it would indicate a 59.9% decline from September's 136,211 units sold.

      "The automotive industry is undergoing a significant adjustment within the electric vehicle sector," stated J.D. Power data analyst Tyson Jominy. "The recent correction in the EV market highlights a crucial insight: consumers prefer to have access to a diverse range of powertrain options."

      Interestingly, the situation could have been even more dire for EVs. Several manufacturers, including Hyundai, GM, and Tesla, implemented various strategies to mitigate the effects of losing the federal tax credit.

      Without such measures, such as reducing overall costs, introducing less expensive models, among others, the impact would likely have been much more severe.

      Sales & SAAR Comparison

      ¹ The figures for October 2025 are projections based on the first 16 selling days of the month.² October 2025 has 27 selling days, similar to October 2024.

      Automotive leaders also believe that the EV market will stabilize and see consistent growth over time, a sentiment recently echoed by both the current and former CEOs of Ford. Of course, only time will reveal the outcome.

      Rising Prices, Reduced Discounts

      Another noteworthy observation is that average transaction prices are increasing while the share of EVs declines. The typical new vehicle sold in October is anticipated to reach $46,057, roughly $1,000 more than last year. Incentive spending has decreased to $2,674 per vehicle, which is about five percent of the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP).

      Analysts suggest that the reduction in incentives is primarily due to declining EV sales. “EVs typically come with much larger discounts,” noted a researcher. Average EV discounts climbed to $13,161 as brands attempted to compensate for the lost tax credits, while discounts for non-EVs dropped to $2,423, helping to enhance overall profitability despite the lower demand for EVs.